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Export Revenue Mix: The Geographic Diversification Test for Indian Small-Caps

Infographic: Export Revenue Mix bar chart by fiscal year (FY20–FY25); values 28, 26, 22, 18, 14, 11, with FY25 bar highlighted in green.

The number of registered investors on the National Stock Exchange has crossed eleven crore in 2026, up from roughly three crore in 2020 — a 3.7x expansion in a single market cycle. Yet a 2024 SEBI study found that nine

Manish GoelMay 8, 2026 Blog Read more

CWIP-to-Gross-Block Ratio: The Forward-Looking Capex Pipeline Marker That Reveals Whether Indian Companies Are Building Their Future or Stuck With Stranded Assets

Dark blue hero banner with the article title 'CWIP-to-Gross-Block Ratio' and a centered multi‑colored donut chart labeled FY25 reinvested.

Indian retail participation has crossed 11 crore registered investors on NSE — up from 3 crore just five years ago. Yet a SEBI study covering FY22-FY24 found that 9 out of 10 individual traders in the equity Futures & Options

Manish GoelMay 7, 2026 Blog Read more

Opportunity Cost as Hurdle Rate: Charlie Munger’s ‘Best Available Alternative’ Test

Infographic: 'Opportunity Cost as Hurdle Rate' with six horizontal bars showing yearly values FY20–FY25; FY25 is green at 11, others in dark blue with values 28, 26, 22, 18, 14.

One of the most repeated lines in Charlie Munger’s lifetime of public talks goes like this: “The first principle is that you have to ask yourself, what’s my best alternative use for this dollar? And that’s the standard against which

Manish GoelMay 7, 2026 Blog Read more

CFO/EBITDA Ratio: The Operating-Cash Quality Test

Horizontal bar chart titled CFO/EBITDA Ratio with subtitle The Operating-Cash Quality Test, showing annual values: FY20 28, FY21 26, FY22 22, FY23 18, FY24 14, FY25 11 (FY25 bar in green).

The Securities and Exchange Board of India’s longitudinal study on the Futures & Options segment confirmed what disciplined long-term investors have suspected for years: roughly 9 out of every 10 individual traders in Indian F&O lose money, with aggregate retail

Manish GoelMay 6, 2026 Blog Read more

The Inevitables: Warren Buffett’s 1996 Letter Three-Tier Test of Business Predictability

Hero header with large title 'The Inevitals' and green subtitle on a dark blue background; a 2x2 color grid labeled Trader (gray), Compounder (green), Drift (light gray), Speculator (orange) across the middle of the page; small 'Multibagger Shares' label in the bottom left.

Estimated reading time: 9–11 minutes. This is an educational value-investing essay written for serious Indian long-term investors. The Titan Biotech section is a corporate-process illustration of a categorisation principle. Table of Contents Toggle 1. The Sentence Almost Nobody Quotes From

Manish GoelMay 6, 2026 Blog Read more

The Illusion of Control: Ellen Langer’s 1975 Cognitive Bias That Powers ₹1.81 Lakh Crore of Indian F&O Losses

Header title: The Illusion of Control with subtitle about Ellen Langer's 1975 cognitive bias and a four-quadrant diagram beneath in muted colors and bold titles.

Estimated reading time: 11–13 minutes. This is an educational behavioural-finance article written for serious Indian long-term investors. It is neither a research report nor a stock recommendation. The Titan Biotech section is a corporate-process case study — not a buy/sell/hold

Manish GoelMay 5, 2026 Blog Read more

Other Income as a Percentage of PBT: The 30-Second Forensic Earnings-Quality Filter

Horizontal bar chart showing 'Other Income as a Percentage of' for FY20–FY25; values: 3.2, 2.8, 2.1, 1.6, 1.3, 1.1% (green bar for FY25).

Educational deep-dive on a forensic earnings-quality metric — illustrated, not recommended. This is not a buy/sell recommendation on any stock, including Titan Biotech Limited (BSE: 524717). Table of Contents Toggle Why This One Line in the P&L Decides Whether You

Manish GoelMay 5, 2026 Blog Read more

Economic Goodwill: Warren Buffett’s 1983 Berkshire Letter Appendix on the Real Source of Compounding

Hero section with title 'Economic Goodwill' and subtitle, plus a four-tile grid labeled Trader, COMPOUNDER, Drift, and Speculator on a dark blue background

Most Indian investors hear the word goodwill and instinctively reach for a forensic flashlight. Their training is correct, but it is incomplete. There are two goodwills in the investing universe — and the one that compounds your wealth is invisible

Manish GoelMay 5, 2026 Blog Read more

The Gambler’s Fallacy and Hot-Hand Fallacy: Tversky, Kahneman & Gilovich on the Misperception of Random Sequences

Infographic: four-panel grid illustrating misperceptions of random sequences with labels Lucky, Disciplined Investor, Confused, Bias-Trapped (colors gray, green, light gray, orange).

Ask the average Indian retail investor how they decide what to buy this morning, and a striking pattern emerges. “This stock has fallen for five sessions, the bounce is due.” “That stock has rallied for three quarters, the streak is

Manish GoelMay 4, 2026 Blog Read more

PEG Ratio: Peter Lynch’s Growth-Adjusted Valuation Framework

Infographic showing PEG ratio by fiscal year with horizontal bars: FY20=38, FY21=32, FY22=26, FY23=22, FY24=19, FY25=16 (green highlight).

Last week, India crossed a quiet milestone. The number of unique investors registered with NSE moved past 11 crore — up from just 3 crore in 2019, according to NSE’s Market Pulse data. In parallel, the SEBI study released in

Manish GoelMay 4, 2026 Blog Read more

Walter Schloss’s 16 Factors: How Graham’s Quietest Disciple Beat the Market for 47 Years Without Ever Meeting Management

Webpage hero with title 'Walter Schloss’s 16 Factors' and subtitle, featuring a 2x2 color grid labeled: Trader (gray), COMPOUNDER (green), Drift (light gray), Speculator (orange).

Most Indian investors who have read a few value-investing books know three names by heart: Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. A few will throw in Philip Fisher or Peter Lynch. Almost no one talks about Walter Schloss —

Manish GoelMay 4, 2026 Blog Read more

Outside View vs Inside View: Kahneman & Lovallo’s Reference-Class Forecasting Discipline

Hero banner titled 'Outside View vs Inside View' over a dark blue background with a four‑block infographic (Lucky, Disciplined Investor, Confused, Bias‑Trapped).

If you ask an Indian retail investor, “What return will your favourite small-cap stock deliver over the next five years?” you will almost always get a confident, story-driven answer: “The promoter is honest, the order book is strong, the sector

Manish GoelMay 3, 2026 Blog Read more

Beneish M-Score: The 8-Variable Forensic Model That Caught Enron Three Years Before Bankruptcy

Bar chart titled Beneish M-Score showing yearly values FY20–FY25: FY20 3.2, FY21 2.8, FY22 2.1, FY23 1.6, FY24 1.3, FY25 1.1 (green bar on FY25).

According to the latest SEBI study on individual traders in the equity Futures & Options segment, 9 out of 10 lose money. Combine that with the National Stock Exchange’s registered investor base growing from 3 crore in 2020 to over

Manish GoelMay 3, 2026 Blog Read more

The Twenty-Punch-Card Rule: Warren Buffett’s Lifetime-Scarcity Discipline for Indian Value Investors

Hero section with title 'The Twenty-Punch-Card Rule' and a 2x2 color grid labeled Trader, Compounder, Drift, Speculator.

In 1991, on stage at the University of Notre Dame, Warren Buffett offered a single thought experiment that, if taken seriously, would have saved Indian retail investors from roughly ₹1.8 lakh crore of F&O losses, several thousand small-cap blow-ups, and

Manish GoelMay 3, 2026 Blog Read more

Process vs Outcome Thinking: Annie Duke’s ‘Thinking in Bets’ Framework

Header hero on deep blue background with the title 'Process vs Outcome Thinking' and a multicolored donut chart labeled FY25 reinvested in the center-right area.

Published 2 May 2026 · Behavioral Finance Series · ~3,000 words You can make a brilliant decision and still lose money. You can make an awful decision and still make money. Most Indian retail investors do not separate these two

Manish GoelMay 2, 2026 Blog Read more
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My Portfolio CAGR is 112% as on 31.10.2024
My Contract Note of 28.06.2024 showing A.K. Spintex buying at 185 average

Telegram Link - https://telegram.me/longtermequityy

Manish Goel in ABP Live
Manish Goel in LiveMint
Bhopal Samachar

My Other Posts

  • The Share-Price Illusion: Why a ₹10 Share Is Not Cheap and a ₹1,00,000 Share Is Not Costly
  • The Cube of Gold That Cannot Grow: Warren Buffett’s Famous Lesson on Assets That Work and Assets That Just Sit
  • The Voting Machine and the Weighing Machine: Benjamin Graham’s Famous Lesson on Why Popularity Fades and Profits Win
  • Never Invest with Borrowed Money: Warren Buffett’s Simplest Rule for Surviving the Stock Market
  • Whose Report Card Are You Filling? Warren Buffett’s Inner Scorecard for the Everyday Investor
  • Know What You Own: Peter Lynch’s Two-Minute Test Before You Buy Any Stock
  • The Investor Who Never Has to Sell: Benjamin Graham’s Safety-Cushion Rule
  • Only When the Tide Goes Out: Warren Buffett’s Famous Lesson on How Good Times Hide Weak Companies
  • When Everyone at the Party Has a Stock Tip: Peter Lynch’s Famous Cocktail Party Theory
  • Why Good Companies Do Foolish Things: Warren Buffett’s ‘Institutional Imperative’ in Plain English
  • Forget the Forecast: Why the Best Investors Ignore the Economy and Watch the Business Instead
  • The Toll Booth Business: Why Some Companies Quietly Collect a Small Fee From a Huge Crowd
  • Boring Is Beautiful: Why Dull, Overlooked Businesses Often Make the Best Investments
Economic Times Industry Leaders Award for Manish Goel
In last 5 years, Out of my these shortlisted 30 companies, Hazoor Multiprojects Multiplied 21 Times in 2 Years, and Sangam Advisors (Waaree Renewables Technologies ltd) Multiplied 450 Times in 5 Years.
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