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Hyperbolic Discounting: Strotz (1956) & Laibson’s (1997) Bias Behind Why Indian SIP Investors Quit at Month 21

Infographic with four blocks: Lucky (gray), DISCIPLINED INVESTOR (green), Confused (light gray), BIAS-TRAPPED (orange) on a dark blue background.

If you opened a Systematic Investment Plan three years ago promising yourself you would not touch it for ten years, and yet you stopped it in 22 months, the explanation is not weakness of character. It is a specific, measurable,

Manish GoelMay 13, 2026 Blog Read more

Chairperson Independence: SEBI LODR Regulation 17(1B) and Companies Act Section 149(6) Test

Timeline graphic of chairperson independence milestones FY21–FY25 with green dots: Compliance, Disclosure, Audit clean, Board change, All boxes.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India introduced a quiet but seismic governance reform on 1 April 2022 through an amendment to the Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements (LODR) Regulations. Regulation 17(1B) was made permanent for the top 500 listed

Manish GoelMay 13, 2026 Blog Read more

Bird in Hand vs Two in the Bush: Warren Buffett’s 2000 Berkshire Letter Reading of Aesop

Hero header with the title 'Bird in Hand vs Two in' and subtitle, plus a four-quadrant diagram labeled Trader (gray), Compounder (green), Drift (light gray), Speculator (orange) on a dark blue page.

Every Indian investor who has ever tried to value a stock has at some point reached for a DCF spreadsheet, plugged in growth rates and terminal multiples, watched the answer wobble by 40% when the discount rate moved 100 basis

Manish GoelMay 13, 2026 Blog Read more

Cognitive Dissonance: Leon Festinger’s 1957 Resolution Mechanism

Infographic bar chart labeled FY20–FY25; blue bars show values 28, 26, 22, 18, 14, and a green bar for FY25 with 11.

Why do investors who paid ₹500 for a stock that has fallen to ₹200 add more capital at ₹200 — not because the thesis improved, but because selling would force them to confront the painful belief that they were wrong?

Manish GoelMay 12, 2026 Blog Read more

Director Remuneration as a Percentage of PAT: The Companies Act Section 197 Governance Test Every Indian Long-Term Investor Must Master

Header title 'Director Remuneration as a Percentage of' with a FY21–FY25 milestone timeline (Compliance, Disclosure, Audit clean, Board change, All boxes). (informative)

Hook. The National Stock Exchange now hosts more than 11 crore unique investors, up from barely 3 crore at the start of this decade — the steepest retail participation surge any major market has ever recorded. And yet a 2024

Manish GoelMay 12, 2026 Blog Read more

Time Arbitrage: Why Stretching Your Holding Period to Five and Ten Years Is the Single Greatest Edge a Private Indian Investor Has Over Institutional Money

Infographic showing four investment styles in a two-by-two grid: Trader (gray) and Compounded (green) on top; Drift (light gray) and Speculator (orange) on bottom, on a dark blue background with a Time Arbitrage title.

Ask a fund manager what edge he has over the index, and you will hear the usual answers — better research, deeper models, faster information. Ask the same question to a private investor with a steady job and a 25-year

Manish GoelMay 12, 2026 Blog Read more

The Halo Effect: Thorndike’s 1920 Discovery and Phil Rosenzweig’s 2007 Warning

Hero banner with title 'The Halo Effect' and subtitle, featuring a 2x2 color grid labeled Lucky (gray), Disciplined Investor (green), Confused (light gray), and Bias-Trapped (orange) illustrating four investor types.

Every quarter, a particular kind of stock idea sweeps through Indian WhatsApp investor groups. The CEO gave a magnetic CNBC-TV18 interview. The promoter is a Padma Shri recipient. The company launched a sleek new product. One trait shines — and

Manish GoelMay 11, 2026 Blog Read more

10-Year Revenue CAGR: The Foundational Top-Line Compounding Test Every Indian Long-Term Investor Must Master

Chart showing 10-Year Revenue CAGR with FY20 28, FY21 26, FY22 22, FY23 18, FY24 14, FY25 11 (green) on a dark blue background, indicating a declining trend across years.

SEBI’s landmark 2024 study revealed that 9 out of 10 retail traders in equity Futures & Options lose money — a cumulative ₹1.81 lakh crore destroyed across just three financial years. Yet in the very same window, NSE-registered investors climbed

Manish GoelMay 11, 2026 Blog Read more

The Envy/Jealousy Tendency: Charlie Munger’s 1995 Harvard Speech on Why It’s Not Greed That Drives the World

Infographic with a dark blue background showing a 2x2 grid of colored panels: top left 'Lucky' (grayish-blue), top right 'DISCIPLED INVESTOR' (green), bottom left 'Confused' (light gray), bottom right 'BIAS-TRAPPED' (orange); title reads 'The Envy/Jealousy Tendency' with a subtitle about Charlie Munger's Harvard speech.

If you have spent any time on Indian investing Twitter in the past three years, you have already met the most expensive emotion in money — and it is not greed. It is envy. Greed is a man wanting more.

Manish GoelMay 11, 2026 Blog Read more

The Planning Fallacy: Kahneman & Tversky’s 1979 Forecast Bias and Buehler-Griffin-Ross 1994 Discipline of Time-Cost-Risk Estimation

Slide titled 'The Planning Fallacy' on a dark blue background, with a 2x2 grid: top left 'Lucky' gray, top right green 'Disciplined Investor', bottom left 'Confused' light gray, bottom right orange 'Bias-Trapped'.

Investor education series — Behavioral Finance lane. This article studies one specific cognitive bias that affects long-term equity investors in India, grounds it in the original academic literature, translates it into the Indian context using SEBI and NSE data, and

Manish GoelMay 10, 2026 Blog Read more

Reinvestment Rate: The Damodaran Formula That Reveals Whether a Company’s Growth Is Self-Sustaining

Hero banner for 'Reinvestment Rate' with a navy background, green-accented subtitle, and a colorful donut chart labeled FY25 centered on the page.

Most Indian retail investors track quarterly EPS growth and stop there. They never ask the deeper question every long-term compounder must eventually answer: where is that growth coming from, and how much does the company have to spend to keep

Manish GoelMay 10, 2026 Blog Read more

The Affect Heuristic: Slovic et al.’s 2002 Cognitive Shortcut Behind India’s ₹1.81 Lakh Crore F&O Loss Numbers

Hero title: The Affect Heuristic with a subtitle on a dark blue background. Below, a two-by-two color grid labeled Lucky, Disciplined Investor, Confused, and Bias-Trapped.

Pick a stock you “feel good” about. Pick a stock you “feel bad” about. Now ask yourself: did the feeling come before or after you looked at the numbers? If you are honest, the feeling came first; the numbers were

Manish GoelMay 9, 2026 Blog Read more

The Affect Heuristic: Slovic et al.’s 2002 Cognitive Shortcut Behind India’s ₹1.81 Lakh Crore F&O Loss Numbers

Hero title: The Affect Heuristic with a subtitle on a dark blue background. Below, a two-by-two color grid labeled Lucky, Disciplined Investor, Confused, and Bias-Trapped.

Pick a stock you “feel good” about. Pick a stock you “feel bad” about. Now ask yourself: did the feeling come before or after you looked at the numbers? If you are honest, the feeling came first; the numbers were

Manish GoelMay 9, 2026 Blog Read more

Sales-to-Gross-Block Ratio: The Asset Productivity Test

Infographic titled Sales-to-Gross-Block Ratio showing yearly bars FY20–FY25 with values: FY20 28, FY21 26, FY22 22, FY23 18, FY24 14, FY25 11 (green bar).

The Securities and Exchange Board of India’s most recent investor demographics report tells a sobering story: India’s listed-equity universe has expanded from 3 crore unique investors in 2014 to over 11 crore in 2025, and yet the same regulator’s three-year

Manish GoelMay 9, 2026 Blog Read more

The Framing Effect: Tversky & Kahneman’s 1981 ‘Asian Disease Problem’

Two-by-two color blocks labeled Lucky, Disciplined Investor, Confused, and Bias-Trapped on a dark blue background; title 'The Framing Effect'

If a fund is described as “90% of investors retain capital” you commit. If the same fund is described as “1 in 10 investors lose capital” you hesitate. The math is identical. Your decision is not. That gap is the

Manish GoelMay 8, 2026 Blog Read more
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Translate:

My Portfolio CAGR is 112% as on 31.10.2024
My Contract Note of 28.06.2024 showing A.K. Spintex buying at 185 average

Telegram Link - https://telegram.me/longtermequityy

Manish Goel in ABP Live
Manish Goel in LiveMint
Bhopal Samachar

My Other Posts

  • The Share-Price Illusion: Why a ₹10 Share Is Not Cheap and a ₹1,00,000 Share Is Not Costly
  • The Cube of Gold That Cannot Grow: Warren Buffett’s Famous Lesson on Assets That Work and Assets That Just Sit
  • The Voting Machine and the Weighing Machine: Benjamin Graham’s Famous Lesson on Why Popularity Fades and Profits Win
  • Never Invest with Borrowed Money: Warren Buffett’s Simplest Rule for Surviving the Stock Market
  • Whose Report Card Are You Filling? Warren Buffett’s Inner Scorecard for the Everyday Investor
  • Know What You Own: Peter Lynch’s Two-Minute Test Before You Buy Any Stock
  • The Investor Who Never Has to Sell: Benjamin Graham’s Safety-Cushion Rule
  • Only When the Tide Goes Out: Warren Buffett’s Famous Lesson on How Good Times Hide Weak Companies
  • When Everyone at the Party Has a Stock Tip: Peter Lynch’s Famous Cocktail Party Theory
  • Why Good Companies Do Foolish Things: Warren Buffett’s ‘Institutional Imperative’ in Plain English
  • Forget the Forecast: Why the Best Investors Ignore the Economy and Watch the Business Instead
  • The Toll Booth Business: Why Some Companies Quietly Collect a Small Fee From a Huge Crowd
  • Boring Is Beautiful: Why Dull, Overlooked Businesses Often Make the Best Investments
Economic Times Industry Leaders Award for Manish Goel
In last 5 years, Out of my these shortlisted 30 companies, Hazoor Multiprojects Multiplied 21 Times in 2 Years, and Sangam Advisors (Waaree Renewables Technologies ltd) Multiplied 450 Times in 5 Years.
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