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Author: Manish Goel

Other Income as a Percentage of PBT: The 30-Second Forensic Earnings-Quality Filter

Horizontal bar chart showing 'Other Income as a Percentage of' for FY20–FY25; values: 3.2, 2.8, 2.1, 1.6, 1.3, 1.1% (green bar for FY25).

Educational deep-dive on a forensic earnings-quality metric — illustrated, not recommended. This is not a buy/sell recommendation on any stock, including Titan Biotech Limited (BSE: 524717). Table of Contents Toggle Why This One Line in the P&L Decides Whether You

Manish GoelMay 5, 2026 Blog Read more

Economic Goodwill: Warren Buffett’s 1983 Berkshire Letter Appendix on the Real Source of Compounding

Hero section with title 'Economic Goodwill' and subtitle, plus a four-tile grid labeled Trader, COMPOUNDER, Drift, and Speculator on a dark blue background

Most Indian investors hear the word goodwill and instinctively reach for a forensic flashlight. Their training is correct, but it is incomplete. There are two goodwills in the investing universe — and the one that compounds your wealth is invisible

Manish GoelMay 5, 2026 Blog Read more

The Gambler’s Fallacy and Hot-Hand Fallacy: Tversky, Kahneman & Gilovich on the Misperception of Random Sequences

Infographic: four-panel grid illustrating misperceptions of random sequences with labels Lucky, Disciplined Investor, Confused, Bias-Trapped (colors gray, green, light gray, orange).

Ask the average Indian retail investor how they decide what to buy this morning, and a striking pattern emerges. “This stock has fallen for five sessions, the bounce is due.” “That stock has rallied for three quarters, the streak is

Manish GoelMay 4, 2026 Blog Read more

PEG Ratio: Peter Lynch’s Growth-Adjusted Valuation Framework

Infographic showing PEG ratio by fiscal year with horizontal bars: FY20=38, FY21=32, FY22=26, FY23=22, FY24=19, FY25=16 (green highlight).

Last week, India crossed a quiet milestone. The number of unique investors registered with NSE moved past 11 crore — up from just 3 crore in 2019, according to NSE’s Market Pulse data. In parallel, the SEBI study released in

Manish GoelMay 4, 2026 Blog Read more

Walter Schloss’s 16 Factors: How Graham’s Quietest Disciple Beat the Market for 47 Years Without Ever Meeting Management

Webpage hero with title 'Walter Schloss’s 16 Factors' and subtitle, featuring a 2x2 color grid labeled: Trader (gray), COMPOUNDER (green), Drift (light gray), Speculator (orange).

Most Indian investors who have read a few value-investing books know three names by heart: Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. A few will throw in Philip Fisher or Peter Lynch. Almost no one talks about Walter Schloss —

Manish GoelMay 4, 2026 Blog Read more

Outside View vs Inside View: Kahneman & Lovallo’s Reference-Class Forecasting Discipline

Hero banner titled 'Outside View vs Inside View' over a dark blue background with a four‑block infographic (Lucky, Disciplined Investor, Confused, Bias‑Trapped).

If you ask an Indian retail investor, “What return will your favourite small-cap stock deliver over the next five years?” you will almost always get a confident, story-driven answer: “The promoter is honest, the order book is strong, the sector

Manish GoelMay 3, 2026 Blog Read more

Beneish M-Score: The 8-Variable Forensic Model That Caught Enron Three Years Before Bankruptcy

Bar chart titled Beneish M-Score showing yearly values FY20–FY25: FY20 3.2, FY21 2.8, FY22 2.1, FY23 1.6, FY24 1.3, FY25 1.1 (green bar on FY25).

According to the latest SEBI study on individual traders in the equity Futures & Options segment, 9 out of 10 lose money. Combine that with the National Stock Exchange’s registered investor base growing from 3 crore in 2020 to over

Manish GoelMay 3, 2026 Blog Read more

The Twenty-Punch-Card Rule: Warren Buffett’s Lifetime-Scarcity Discipline for Indian Value Investors

Hero section with title 'The Twenty-Punch-Card Rule' and a 2x2 color grid labeled Trader, Compounder, Drift, Speculator.

In 1991, on stage at the University of Notre Dame, Warren Buffett offered a single thought experiment that, if taken seriously, would have saved Indian retail investors from roughly ₹1.8 lakh crore of F&O losses, several thousand small-cap blow-ups, and

Manish GoelMay 3, 2026 Blog Read more

Process vs Outcome Thinking: Annie Duke’s ‘Thinking in Bets’ Framework

Header hero on deep blue background with the title 'Process vs Outcome Thinking' and a multicolored donut chart labeled FY25 reinvested in the center-right area.

Published 2 May 2026 · Behavioral Finance Series · ~3,000 words You can make a brilliant decision and still lose money. You can make an awful decision and still make money. Most Indian retail investors do not separate these two

Manish GoelMay 2, 2026 Blog Read more

Book Value Per Share (BVPS) Compounding: Warren Buffett’s 53-Year Berkshire Yardstick

Hero infographic on BVPS compounding with four blocks: left column 'Trader' above 'Drift' in gray; right column 'COMPUNDER' (green) above 'Speculator' (orange) on a dark blue background, title text at top.

Most retail Indian investors stare at the share price 50 times a day and never look at the book value once a year. That single habit is why 9 out of 10 of them lose money in F&O (per the

Manish GoelMay 2, 2026 Blog Read more

The Lollapalooza Effect: Charlie Munger’s 1995 Harvard Doctrine on Multiplicative Forces

The Lollapalooza Effect title with a four-quadrant infographic: top-left 'Lucky' in light gray, top-right 'DISCIPLINED INVESTOR' in green, bottom-left 'Confused' in pale gray, bottom-right 'BIAS-TRAPPED' in orange, all on a dark blue background.

📅 Published May 02, 2026 (Saturday) There is a kind of investment outcome — both spectacular wealth-creation and spectacular wealth-destruction — that no single explanation ever fully accounts for. The 2008 Lehman collapse was not “just” leverage. The 2018 IL&FS

Manish GoelMay 2, 2026 Blog Read more

Action Bias: Bar-Eli et al.’s 2007 Goalkeeper Study and Why Indian Investors’ Compulsion to ‘Do Something’ Destroys Long-Term Returns

Hero section showing 'Action Bias' and a 2x2 grid of investor mindsets: Lucky (gray), Disciplined Investor (green), Confused (light gray), Bias-Trapped (orange).

The behavioural mistake that quietly destroys more long-term wealth in Indian retail portfolios than any other is not loss aversion, herd mentality or even recency bias — it is the simple, hard-wired compulsion to do something when the right answer

Manish GoelMay 1, 2026 Blog Read more

EBITDA Margin: The Profitability Yardstick Every Indian Value Investor Must Master

Infographic showing EBITDA Margin by fiscal year from FY20 to FY25; bars rise from 14 to 22, with FY25 bar colored green.

India’s equity markets now host more than 11 crore unique investors registered with NSE — up from barely 3 crore as recently as January 2020. Yet a SEBI study famously found that 9 out of 10 individual traders in the

Manish GoelMay 1, 2026 Blog Read more

Stocks as Equity Bonds: Warren Buffett’s 1977 Equity-Bond Framework — Why Indian Long-Term Investors Should Treat Every Share Certificate as a Variable-Coupon Bond

Hero header with title 'Stocks as Equity Bonds' and subtitle, plus a 2x2 color grid labeled Trader, Compounder, Drift, Speculator.

One of the most useful sentences ever written about equity investing is buried in a 1977 Fortune essay titled “How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor”. Warren Buffett, then 47, made an argument almost no Indian retail investor has internalised half

Manish GoelMay 1, 2026 Blog Read more

Pre-Mortem Analysis: Gary Klein’s 2007 HBR Discipline for Imagining Failure Before You Invest

Pre-Mortem Analysis infographic with a horizontal bar chart of yearly values FY20–FY25; purple bars show 28, 26, 22, 18, 14, and a green bar for FY25 with 11.

If you can imagine, in vivid and unflattering detail, the precise way an investment will fail before you ever click “Buy” — and write that obituary down in the first person — you have already deactivated more than half of

Manish GoelApril 30, 2026 Blog Read more
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My Portfolio CAGR is 112% as on 31.10.2024
My Contract Note of 28.06.2024 showing A.K. Spintex buying at 185 average

Telegram Link - https://telegram.me/longtermequityy

Manish Goel in ABP Live
Manish Goel in LiveMint
Bhopal Samachar

My Other Posts

  • Why I Hold Greenlam Industries — India’s Laminate Leader
  • Why I Bought HG Industries — and How It Became Greenlam (~3×)
  • Why I Bought Netlink Solutions — and Why It Multiplied ~3×
  • Why I Bought Hazoor Multiprojects — and Why It Multiplied ~10×
  • Why I Bought A.K. Spintex (Now Sunrakshakk Industries) — and Why It Multiplied ~10×
  • Why I Bought Solex Energy — and Why It Multiplied ~15×
  • Why I Bought Maithan Alloys — and Why It Multiplied ~29×
  • Why I Bought Sangam Advisors (Now Waaree Renewables) — and Why It Multiplied ~312×
  • Lease Liabilities and Right-of-Use Assets: How Ind AS 116 Dragged India’s Off-Balance-Sheet Debt Into the Open
  • The Share-Price Illusion: Why a ₹10 Share Is Not Cheap and a ₹1,00,000 Share Is Not Costly
  • The Cube of Gold That Cannot Grow: Warren Buffett’s Famous Lesson on Assets That Work and Assets That Just Sit
  • The Voting Machine and the Weighing Machine: Benjamin Graham’s Famous Lesson on Why Popularity Fades and Profits Win
  • Never Invest with Borrowed Money: Warren Buffett’s Simplest Rule for Surviving the Stock Market
Economic Times Industry Leaders Award for Manish Goel
In last 5 years, Out of my these shortlisted 30 companies, Hazoor Multiprojects Multiplied 21 Times in 2 Years, and Sangam Advisors (Waaree Renewables Technologies ltd) Multiplied 450 Times in 5 Years.
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