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Author: Manish Goel

Myopic Loss Aversion (Benartzi & Thaler 1995): Why Indian Retail Investors Sabotage Long-Term Returns by Checking Portfolios Too Often

Infographic slide showing a 2x2 grid of investor archetypes: Lucky (gray), Disciplined Investor (green), Confused (light gray), and Bias-Trapped (orange).

In 1995, two behavioural economists — Shlomo Benartzi and Richard Thaler — published a paper that won Thaler the 2017 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. Its title was deceptively simple: “Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle”. The

Manish GoelMay 16, 2026 Blog Read more

Net Debt to EBITDA Ratio: The Single Solvency Test Credit Analysts Care About Most

Infographic bar chart of net debt to EBITDA ratio by fiscal year from FY20 to FY25, with values 28, 26, 22, 18, 14, and 11 (FY25 highlighted in green).

Table of Contents Toggle Why this one ratio explains more about a company’s survival odds than any other line on the balance sheet What is Net Debt to EBITDA? A plain-English definition The formula — and the four moving pieces

Manish GoelMay 16, 2026 Blog Read more

Look-Through Earnings: Warren Buffett’s 1990 Berkshire Letter Framework for Measuring Your True Portfolio Earnings

Hero header with title 'Look-Through Earnings' and subtitle, featuring a central multicolor donut chart labeled FY25 reinvested on a dark blue background.

Open a brokerage statement in India today and you will see one earnings number that the system insists is “yours” — the dividend credit. Everything else — the buybacks, the retained profits, the capex funded out of internal accruals, the

Manish GoelMay 16, 2026 Blog Read more

Ambiguity Aversion: Daniel Ellsberg’s 1961 Paradox and Why Indian Investors Prefer the Illusion of Probabilistic Certainty in Weekly Options Over the Honest Uncertainty of Long-Term Equity

Two-by-two chart of investor types: Lucky (top-left), Disciplined Investor (top-right), Confused (bottom-left), Bias-Trapped (bottom-right).

One paragraph summary. Daniel Ellsberg published a four-page paradox in 1961 that did to Leonard Savage’s expected-utility theory what Kahneman and Tversky would later do to rational-choice theory. Given a choice between an urn whose composition is known and one

Manish GoelMay 15, 2026 Blog Read more

EV/Sales Ratio: The Capital-Structure-Neutral Revenue Multiple Every Indian Long-Term Investor Must Master

Bar chart titled EV/Sales Ratio showing FY20 38, FY21 32, FY22 26, FY23 22, FY24 19, FY25 16; FY25 bar highlighted in green.

The number of registered investors on the National Stock Exchange has multiplied from roughly 3 crore in 2020 to more than 11 crore by early 2026 — a once-in-a-generation broadening of equity ownership in India. Yet the same SEBI study

Manish GoelMay 15, 2026 Blog Read more

Peter Lynch’s Six Categories of Stocks: The 1989 ‘One Up on Wall Street’ Classification Discipline Every Indian Investor Must Master Before the Next Multibagger Hunt

Header text 'Peter Lynch’s Six Categories of Stocks' with a four-block grid: Trader (gray), Compounder (green), Drift (light gray), Speculator (orange).

If you have ever stared at a list of forty Indian stocks in your demat and felt a low-grade panic — “what exactly am I holding, and what should I expect each one to do?” — then you are exactly

Manish GoelMay 15, 2026 Blog Read more

Familiarity Bias and Home-Country Bias: How Huberman (2001) and French & Poterba (1991) Explain Why 99% of Indian Retail Portfolios Stay Inside India

Hero header reading 'Familiarity Bias and Home-Country Bias' with pale green subtitle on a dark blue background; below is a four-panel infographic: top-left gray 'Lucky', top-right green 'Discipined Investor', bottom-left light gray 'Confused', bottom-right orange 'Bias-Trapped'.

An investor in Mumbai who buys only Mumbai-listed equities, who concentrates 18% of his portfolio in his employer’s shares, who has never opened a Liberalised Remittance Scheme account, and who has zero exposure to the United States, Europe, Japan, or

Manish GoelMay 14, 2026 Blog Read more

Graham Number: Benjamin Graham 1949 Intrinsic-Value Formula √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)

Horizontal bar chart titled 'Graham Number' showing yearly values from FY20 to FY25 on a dark blue background; bars (FY20: 38, FY21: 32, FY22: 26, FY23: 22, FY24: 19, FY25: 16) with FY25 bar in green.

Among India’s 11 crore registered equity investors as of early 2026, fewer than one in fifty can write down Benjamin Graham’s square-root intrinsic-value formula from memory. That single statistic explains why so much of the ₹1.81 lakh crore of cumulative

Manish GoelMay 14, 2026 Blog Read more

Authority Bias: Stanley Milgram’s 1961 Yale Obedience Experiment and Why Indian Investors Hand Their Wealth to TV Stock Pickers

Two-by-two color grid showing four investor attitudes: Lucky (gray), Disciplined Investor (green), Confused (light gray), Bias-Trapped (orange) — from an article titled Authority Bias.

If you have ever bought a stock within ten minutes of a celebrity portfolio manager naming it on a business-news channel, you have not made a research-driven decision. You have obeyed an authority figure. The instinct is so deep, so

Manish GoelMay 14, 2026 Blog Read more

Hyperbolic Discounting: Strotz (1956) & Laibson’s (1997) Bias Behind Why Indian SIP Investors Quit at Month 21

Infographic with four blocks: Lucky (gray), DISCIPLINED INVESTOR (green), Confused (light gray), BIAS-TRAPPED (orange) on a dark blue background.

If you opened a Systematic Investment Plan three years ago promising yourself you would not touch it for ten years, and yet you stopped it in 22 months, the explanation is not weakness of character. It is a specific, measurable,

Manish GoelMay 13, 2026 Blog Read more

Chairperson Independence: SEBI LODR Regulation 17(1B) and Companies Act Section 149(6) Test

Timeline graphic of chairperson independence milestones FY21–FY25 with green dots: Compliance, Disclosure, Audit clean, Board change, All boxes.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India introduced a quiet but seismic governance reform on 1 April 2022 through an amendment to the Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements (LODR) Regulations. Regulation 17(1B) was made permanent for the top 500 listed

Manish GoelMay 13, 2026 Blog Read more

Bird in Hand vs Two in the Bush: Warren Buffett’s 2000 Berkshire Letter Reading of Aesop

Hero header with the title 'Bird in Hand vs Two in' and subtitle, plus a four-quadrant diagram labeled Trader (gray), Compounder (green), Drift (light gray), Speculator (orange) on a dark blue page.

Every Indian investor who has ever tried to value a stock has at some point reached for a DCF spreadsheet, plugged in growth rates and terminal multiples, watched the answer wobble by 40% when the discount rate moved 100 basis

Manish GoelMay 13, 2026 Blog Read more

Cognitive Dissonance: Leon Festinger’s 1957 Resolution Mechanism

Infographic bar chart labeled FY20–FY25; blue bars show values 28, 26, 22, 18, 14, and a green bar for FY25 with 11.

Why do investors who paid ₹500 for a stock that has fallen to ₹200 add more capital at ₹200 — not because the thesis improved, but because selling would force them to confront the painful belief that they were wrong?

Manish GoelMay 12, 2026 Blog Read more

Director Remuneration as a Percentage of PAT: The Companies Act Section 197 Governance Test Every Indian Long-Term Investor Must Master

Header title 'Director Remuneration as a Percentage of' with a FY21–FY25 milestone timeline (Compliance, Disclosure, Audit clean, Board change, All boxes). (informative)

Hook. The National Stock Exchange now hosts more than 11 crore unique investors, up from barely 3 crore at the start of this decade — the steepest retail participation surge any major market has ever recorded. And yet a 2024

Manish GoelMay 12, 2026 Blog Read more

Time Arbitrage: Why Stretching Your Holding Period to Five and Ten Years Is the Single Greatest Edge a Private Indian Investor Has Over Institutional Money

Infographic showing four investment styles in a two-by-two grid: Trader (gray) and Compounded (green) on top; Drift (light gray) and Speculator (orange) on bottom, on a dark blue background with a Time Arbitrage title.

Ask a fund manager what edge he has over the index, and you will hear the usual answers — better research, deeper models, faster information. Ask the same question to a private investor with a steady job and a 25-year

Manish GoelMay 12, 2026 Blog Read more
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Translate:

My Portfolio CAGR is 112% as on 31.10.2024
My Contract Note of 28.06.2024 showing A.K. Spintex buying at 185 average

Telegram Link - https://telegram.me/longtermequityy

Manish Goel in ABP Live
Manish Goel in LiveMint
Bhopal Samachar

My Other Posts

  • Why I Hold Greenlam Industries — India’s Laminate Leader
  • Why I Bought HG Industries — and How It Became Greenlam (~3×)
  • Why I Bought Netlink Solutions — and Why It Multiplied ~3×
  • Why I Bought Hazoor Multiprojects — and Why It Multiplied ~10×
  • Why I Bought A.K. Spintex (Now Sunrakshakk Industries) — and Why It Multiplied ~10×
  • Why I Bought Solex Energy — and Why It Multiplied ~15×
  • Why I Bought Maithan Alloys — and Why It Multiplied ~29×
  • Why I Bought Sangam Advisors (Now Waaree Renewables) — and Why It Multiplied ~312×
  • Lease Liabilities and Right-of-Use Assets: How Ind AS 116 Dragged India’s Off-Balance-Sheet Debt Into the Open
  • The Share-Price Illusion: Why a ₹10 Share Is Not Cheap and a ₹1,00,000 Share Is Not Costly
  • The Cube of Gold That Cannot Grow: Warren Buffett’s Famous Lesson on Assets That Work and Assets That Just Sit
  • The Voting Machine and the Weighing Machine: Benjamin Graham’s Famous Lesson on Why Popularity Fades and Profits Win
  • Never Invest with Borrowed Money: Warren Buffett’s Simplest Rule for Surviving the Stock Market
Economic Times Industry Leaders Award for Manish Goel
In last 5 years, Out of my these shortlisted 30 companies, Hazoor Multiprojects Multiplied 21 Times in 2 Years, and Sangam Advisors (Waaree Renewables Technologies ltd) Multiplied 450 Times in 5 Years.
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